The U.S. Treasury released its latest monthly figures on federal tax revenues and spending. They suggest an economy that remains flat on its back despite year-long, off-and-on "recovery" hoopla.
The following are charts of the 12-month trailing sum of federal tax revenues -- since '81, '03 and last summer, respectively. Total tax revenue collected over the past 12 months is about where it was in 2005 (or 2000, for that matter) -- still roughly 25% (or half a trillion dollars) below its 2008 highs... and it fell over the past month, reversing the previous month's blip.
This data tell me the U.S. economy has not yet recovered -- and this is without adjusting these nominal figures for inflation, in which case things would look even worse. We've had, at best, a dead-cat bounce with, as yet, no clear, solid and sustained signs of upward momentum here.
Some economic statistics, surveys and equity prices are suggesting something different, but tax revenue numbers don't lie: All other things being equal, if economic activity were really growing again, we'd see it here; the economy would be throwing off more income and more tax revenue. Well, it's not, according to these figures.
As I've written previously, what little growth exists is being fuelled by increasingly uncertain growth abroad and government supported industries (health care, education, Wall Street, etc.).
Disclosure: No positions
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