When Dunkin’ Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) went public in mid-July, investors piled on as the stock price shot up by 46.6%. But as is common with hot IPOs, the enthusiasm quickly subsided (the travails in Europe were certainly a factor). The aftermarket return is now -11.2%.
But the management of Dunkin’ really does not want to focus on short-term noise. In fact, it is looking at projections for the next 20 years! That��s right — the company’s leadership believes the U.S. store count will more than double, to 15,000.
In today��s hyperactive world, it’s reassuring to see a company take such long view of things. But in the case of Dunkin’, it does seem a bit ridiculous. Is it realistic to know where the world will be in two decades? Forecasters can barely get a sense of what the trends will be for the next couple of years.
It’s true that Dunkin�� still has a lot of room for growth. For the most part, its footprint is still mostly on the East Coast. At the same time, Dunkin�� also has plenty of opportunity in foreign markets, especially China. The company is already making investments there.
The growth opportunity for Dunkin’ is in contrast with other operators — such as Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), McDonald��s (NYSE:MCD) and Yum! Brands (NASDAQ:YUM) — which have much higher saturation levels. In other words, it would not be a surprise to see investors focus on a company like Dunkin�� to find more returns in the sector.
Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPOPlaybook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of ��All About Short Selling�� and ��All About Commodities.�� Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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